Bradley effect: could it derail Obama?

Although most national polls show Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama arguably ahead in the polls, some believe many white voters may change their mind just before voting over reasons of race or rosier political projections.

Historically, white voters have changed their minds over a black candidate projected to win, a political phenomenon known as the Bradley effect.

The Bradley effect is named after Tom Bradley, the African-American mayor of Los Angeles and projected winner of California’s 1982 gubernatorial election.

Although it was widely believed Bradley would win the election–the San Francisco Chronicle even had the candidate’s victory already laid out for the paper’s morning edition–Bradley received 48.1 percent of the vote, while his Caucasian opponent, George Deukmejian, took 49.3 percent, according to California’s online election history database.

The theory, according to some political analysts, is that at the last minute many white voters changed their minds about voting for a black candidate, which may or may not be the cause of veiled racism.

Dr. Dale Hess, a Professor in PSU’s political science department, said he does expect a Bradley effect, whether people are willing to acknowledge tendencies of racism or not.

“All you need for the Bradley effect is for more people to have private reservations about the prospect of an Obama presidency than there are people who are willing to appear to be racist,” Hess said. “I think we have that.”

A 2007 article in the New York Times describes the Bradley effect as something benignly less sinister: “In high-profile contests where one of the major party candidates is black, pre-election telephone polls have often been wrong, overstating the strength of the black candidate.”

Dr. Melody Rose, political science chair, said that while the Bradley effect may appear to some degree during the election, Obama could still win.

“The Electoral College is still in favor of Obama,” she said, referring to some projections that give the Democratic presidential candidate as much as a 150-vote lead over McCain in the electoral college votes, which awards each state’s number of votes to the majority party based on population.

For as many who believe that the Bradley effect is going to be a factor in this presidential election, there is also much dispute over what its effect could be, if anything.

Rose, speaking at a political science forum Oct. 20, noted that a reversal of the Bradley effect could also happen.

Essentially, some who would not admit to voting for a black president in polls or other public forums may do just that in the privacy of a voting booth or the anonymity of a ballot box.

“So long as there is a generally held value, there will be people who are unwilling to violate that value in public,” said Hess in an e-mail.

However, young voters could turn the tide against the Bradley effect if they vote, according to Hess. For instance, in the 2004 presidential election, a record 14,334 voters age 18-24 registered, but only 11,639 actually showed.

Hess said he believes younger voters will have an unprecedented turnout, with the potential ability to override a possible Bradley effect.

“The ideology of the young is naturally Democratic at the moment,” Hess said. “It was only a few decades ago that it was naturally Republican, and ideas of small government and aggressive markets were exciting.”

Another reason that both Rose and Hess acknowledged is the accessibility of Obama’s online campaigning, which appeals to smaller donations, has made donating easy for young people.

Hess also said campaign staffers for Obama have helped appeal to young voters.

“[They] have worked the tech-savvy tastes of young people,” Hess said. “Popping the name of his vice presidential running mate as a phone text message is a good example.”

In an article appearing on news Web site The Huffington Post (www.huffingtonpost.com), 400 young voters from over 25 states, half of whom were age 18-24, were polled about their plans to vote and the impact of race in their decision.

Nearly everyone surveyed, an overwhelming 98 percent, said they had no problem voting for a candidate of a different race than their own, according to the Web site.

“Barack Obama has done a masterful job of removing some of the race components of this election, and that has allowed us to move forward,” Rose said.