In an atypical mid-term election, the Democrats lost control of the Senate, and had their presence in the House of Representatives diminished as President Bush’s Republican Party picked up seats around the country, likewise Oregon appears a microcosm of national politics, recreating in some ways the contentious political landscape seen in Washington this last year.
“It was a stunning win for the Republicans,” professor emeritus of Political Science David Smeltzer said of the senate wins.
Some pundits have been calling this election historic, as the first time a republican president picked up seats in the House and Senate during a mid-term election while the country was in a recession.
Smeltzer is wary of that characterization.
“I don’t know if this is historic; I think it’s an event which has taken place in the context of things that has resulted in the outcomes,” Smeltzer said.
That context is a possible war in Iraq, and the threat of terrorism at home.
Jesse Cornett, chair of College Democrats at PSU, feels the threat of war gave the republicans a real push in the elections, citing American’s support of incumbents during times of war, or when war is threatened.
“You don’t want to change horses in the middle of that stream,” Cornett said. “I think all the talk of Iraq was basically on that premise.”
While Democrats tried to talk about the economy, they were constantly redirected to international affairs by the threat of war.
Bill Bradbury’s failed senate run against incumbent Gordon Smith was turned into, to some degree, a referendum on war. At a last-ditch get out the vote rally on Halloween banners saying “Bradbury not Bombs” and “No War” were circulated and waved.
Oregon state politics had their own set of galvanizing issues. The gubernatorial race between Republican Kevin Mannix, Democrat Ted Kulongoski and Libertarian Tom Cox was largely fought on the issues of taxes, and whether they should be raised or cut.
Kulongoski came out in support of a proposed income tax surcharge that will be voted on in January, which would raise income taxes for the next three years in order to provide funding for public services. Mannix pledged that he would not sign any new tax bills. Cox and Kulongoski both contended that Mannix’s pledge lacked authority, saying bills not signed by the governor go into law after five days of inactivity anyway.
While Oregon’s new Governor wasn’t decided Tuesday night as Mannix and Kulongoski both had 47 percent of the vote.
Cox feels his 4.6 percent showing is a victory for the Libertarian party, “Considering four years ago we got about 1.9 percent,” he said.
Cox deflects accusations he was a spoiler for one candidate or the other, instead believing his votes came from those in the state who believe in the Libertarian party’s message.
“I think there’s already a strong Libertarian base but they haven’t been activated,” Cox said.
That activation takes outreach and engaging the population.
“That’s how you reach voters. You go where they live,” Cox said, “accost them in coffee shops.”
“I would love to take credit for the outcome, and of course I will, but clearly there were mistakes made by my opponents,” Cox said.
Many people have wondered where Kulongoski was during the campaign, “he really wasn’t a commanding presence, he really wasn’t putting himself in the public,” Cox said of Kulongoski’s campaign.
Smeltzer sees the same problems with Kulongoski’s campaign, “my view on Kulongoski is that he’s a wonderful individual but he doesn’t seem to have a killer instinct,” he said.
Mannix on the other hand had a strong presence on television and the debates.
Smeltzer said that Mannix was more willing to put his message out at any cost, “his ads were attack ads throughout much of the campaign, he got his message out.”
Since Kulongoski won, the Oregon political environment will be as hostile as it was under Kitzhaber, if not more so.
“It’s going to be interesting, we’re going to have a truly divided government,” Cornett said.