The last two Junes in Portland have been indicative of Rip City’s postseason history at large: Despite entering the playoffs with a city’s worth of optimism, there seem to be just a handful of franchises blessed with that spectacular, championship-team magic we’ve only known once in 40 years.
Sure enough, this year marks another during which the Trail Blazers couldn’t survive the first round, while the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics advanced to the finals yet again, with L.A. seeking its 16th title and Boston its 18th. What that means is that these two teams alone have won more than half—half!—of the league’s championships.
Meanwhile, seven active teams hold just a single championship, and four among them have relocated since winning some rings. There are also more than a dozen franchises with nary a championship banner hanging from the rafters…so many woeful, champ-lacking NBA cities, and yet again it’s the usual suspects left standing in the end.
Thus far, Kobe Bryant has played up to his legendary profile with consistent scoring and playmaking as the Lakers’ frontcourt of Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol kept their interior play tight against Western Conference foes. However, Kevin Garnett, Glen Davis and Kendrick Perkins are big men who can match the size advantage L.A. has enjoyed thus far.
Add to this that Rajon Rondo has been playing some of the best basketball of this postseason and has Ray Allen to work with as well, and suddenly the Bryant-Derek Fisher duo looks manageable. The X-factors will decide this series, though it’s got to be tense for Celts fans to know that means Tony “I’m Not Particularly Consistent” Allen, Paul “I’m Nearing Retirement” Pierce and Rasheed “I Love Bricking Big Shots” Wallace. Meanwhile, one must consider that the X-factor Lakers are Ron Artest with his defensive prowess (and, it seems, ability to make huge, game-winning shots in the clutch) next to the speedy, penetrative pace set by Sasha Vujacic and Shannon Brown.
Because I’m not paid to predict NBA games, I don’t like to—if I’m right, there’s not much reward in the handful of people who will read and then actually praise me for making sound guesses. However, the crowd of readers willing to call me out for being wrong, I’ve found, is considerably larger.
Regardless, and with full awareness that I’ll catch plenty of flak from those who actually like the Lakers if I’m wrong, I’m going to say Boston wins this series in six games. They’ve had a great playoff road record in years past, and the cohesion they’ve demonstrated on the court this postseason is phenomenal.
The true X-factors for any series are player health (in other words, one major injury to either squad will severely damage their chances) and player chemistry—and the current starting Celtics have won seven playoff series together without losing one.
Either way, here’s for hoping that next year, a new squad or two are able to make it to the Finals. For now, enjoy what’s left of this postseason before the NBA Draft on June 24 and before the summer becomes a whirlwind of power shifts once free agency opens up July 1.
NBA Finals
Thu, June 3
Game 1: Boston at L.A.
Sun, June 6
Game 2: Boston at L.A. ?
Tue, June 8
Game 3: L.A. at Boston
Thu, June 10
Game 4: L.A. at Boston, ?
Sun, June 13*
Game 5: L.A. at Boston, ?
Tue, June 15*
Game 6: Boston at L.A.
Thu, June 17*
Game 7: Boston at L.A.
* If necessary