On Dec. 28, 2011, thousands of North Koreans stood on snowy streets to commemorate the funeral of their late leader Kim Jong Il. Some openly wept; others mourned in silence. What will North Korea’s new leader, Kim Jong Un, do now that he is in power? Time will tell. Until then, speculations on North Korea’s future will stand at the forefront of the minds of scholars and foreign affairs experts.
On Dec. 28, 2011, thousands of North Koreans stood on snowy streets to commemorate the funeral of their late leader Kim Jong Il. Some openly wept; others mourned in silence. What will North Korea’s new leader, Kim Jong Un, do now that he is in power? Time will tell. Until then, speculations on North Korea’s future will stand at the forefront of the minds of scholars and foreign affairs experts.
This question of uncertainty will dominate PSU professor of political science Mel Gurtov’s lecture on Wednesday. Titled “Kim III: North Korea Under a New Leader,” the lecture is part of the 2011–12 KOREA event series, sponsored by PSU’s Institute for Asian Studies. It will be held at 6 p.m. in the Academic and Student Recreation Center, room 001.
Besides working at PSU, Gurtov serves as editor-in-chief of the international quarterly, Asian Perspective. He has published numerous books and articles concerning the Korean peninsula and U.S. foreign policy, among other topics. He has also served as a visiting professor and senior Fulbright scholar at Waseda University in Tokyo and Hankuk Foreign Studies University in Seoul, and has a close association with Kyungnam University in South Korea.
Tim Duroche, director of programs at World Affairs of Oregon, was eager to speak about Gurtov. “We, at World Affairs of Oregon, are overjoyed to have Mel Gurtov as a great resource, and Portland State should appreciate him as well. He lectured for us a while back, and I have to say, he is really good at talking about North Korea—seeing North Korea from their standpoint,” Duroche said.
Duroche further expounded on Gurtov’s qualifications, pointing that Gurtov worked for the RAND Corporation, a nonprofit global policy think tank, where he co-authored the United States—Vietnam Relations, 1945–1967: A Study Prepared by the Department of Defense aka “The Pentagon Papers.”
The passing of the late Kim Jong Il added to the rising uncertainty regarding the future of North Korea, its nuclear developments and its international presence and relations. In recent years, the country has been dubbed the “Hermit Kingdom” because of its isolationist position: the way the international press is constantly closed off and mainstream internet technology is absent and telecommunications are nearly non-existent outside of governmental institutions.
When asked about the present situation in the secretive nation, Gurtov did not shy away from the difficulty of understanding what the future could bring. “This is an opaque regime, and no one—not even the Chinese—really can claim to know what is going on. The sudden accession of Kim Jong Un to the leadership of North Korea has led to all kinds of speculation about his ability to lead, the country’s direction and the prospects for an agreement with the U.S. and South Korea on nuclear weapons.”
Gurtov noted a number of questions Kim Jong Un’s accession brings, questions like: “Can we expect more provocative behavior form the North? Is engagement with North Korea possible or will the Cold War persist on the Korean peninsula? Will Kim Jong Un be able to command support from the North Korea military?”
Questions like these are pertinent, especially with North Korea military personnel numbering 1.2 million, making it being the most militarized nation in the world.
Senior political science major, Tyler Alexander, echoed the importance of understanding the enigmatic nation. “I would say that their nuclear program probably poses the greatest risk to the rest of the world,” Alexander said. “China is wrapped up in North Korean affairs and volatility in the region is bound to affect trade and markets.” He added that business students focusing on the relationships between Asian countries and the U.S. would likely benefit from the lecture.
Expressing his concern for the native North Koreans who have consistently been cut off from basic access to food under the previous regime, Alexander emphasized how the new leadership in North Korea could touch all spheres of national and international life, political, economical and social.
Last week, an explosion of comments on Twitter rumored the death of Kim Jong Un, which has since proven to be false. However, the episode itself speaks to the general need for insight into the mysterious world behind North Korea’s well-guarded borders.
Gurtov’s lecture is free and open to the public. For more information, visit pdx.edu/cupa/events.held at 6 p.m. in the Academic and Student Rec Center, room 1.
A balanced and probing account of North Korea today.
Ms. Marrone describes N. Korea as ‘enigmatic’, and that is just what it is to most of us in this country. After reading this article I feel more informed, and less in the dark. I will try to make the lecture.
Thank you.