Voters still undecided in recent gubernatorial poll

There are just 12 days left until Oregon’s May 16 primary; 12 short days for each of the three Republican gubernatorial hopefuls to make the case that they are the party’s best shot to dethrone the Democrats in November, ending the GOP’s nearly 20-year shutout from the governor’s mansion.

The race has remained relatively under the radar so far for all but the state’s hardcore political junkies, despite the months Portland attorney Ron Saxton, former GOP Chairman Kevin Mannix and State Sen. Jason Atkinson have spent crisscrossing the state with their campaigns. The lack of attention to the race is reflected in the internal polls conducted by the campaigns and in the few publicly released independent polls, which show the largest percentage of voters are still undecided.

Historically, state primaries have drawn low turnouts. In 2002, when the Republicans and Democrats alike boasted hot contests to fill the seat being vacated by former Gov. John Kitzhaber, only 47 percent of Oregonians bothered to cast their mail ballots. This year, the Democratic contest is considerably lower-octane, with Democratic incumbent Ted Kulongoski looking like the clear favorite against challengers Jim Hill and Pete Sorenson.

The three Republican candidates, though, are locked in a more unpredictable race, and are doing their best to boost voter interest. In these last weeks of the race, they are unleashing a flurry of TV and radio ads, flooding the inboxes of likely primary voters with messages from supporters and stuffing mailboxes with glossy brochures.

Part of the reason that the GOP primary may not have caught on yet with the public is that the race has been a relatively genteel one. Candidates have denied the chance to take public swipes at each other, even when presented with the opportunity. For example, during a recent statewide-televised debate, Saxton and Atkinson both deflected questions about former GOP chair Mannix’s long and complicated campaign finance history.

For weeks, the only outwardly negative ads in the race were from outside interest groups. Mannix donor Loren Parks paid nearly $100,000 for anti-Saxton ads that have been in rotation on radio stations in Portland, Eugene and Bend. The Grande Ronde tribe-backed Oregonians Against Off-Reservation Casinos, meanwhile, dumped over $200,000 into anti-Mannix TV ads, according to records filed with the secretary of state’s office.

But the Mannix campaign is directly sponsoring two anti-Saxton TV ads that began airing this week, one dinging Saxton for his law firm’s contributions to Democratic candidates and the other questioning the decision made by Portland school administrators to hire a highly paid consultant while Saxton served on the Portland School Board.

The negative ads are surfacing right on schedule, said Professor Ronald Tammen, director of the Mark Hatfield School of Government at Portland State University.

“Someone is going to think they are trailing, and there are two ways to make up a difference,” Tammen said. “Either become more popular yourself, or take the other guy’s numbers down, which is less difficult to do. Keep in mind that a lot of opinions get made in the closing periods of elections because of negative advertising. American citizens uniformly say they are turned off by it, but it’s also true that they respond to it.”