Oregon, Washington population growth could add seats in Congress

Population growth may give Oregon and Washington each another seat in Congress after the 2010 census, giving the region more clout in Congress and in presidential elections.

Congressional reapportionment experts say the two states appear to be on track to add seats. Oregon last gained a U.S. House seat-its fifth-after the 1980 census. Washington, which has nine seats, gained one in 1981 and another in 1991.

“I have Oregon and Washington each picking up a seat, but not by much,” said Clark Bensen, a Virginia-based analyst who advises Republicans on reapportionment strategy through his firm, Polidata.

He says Oregon’s odds are slightly better than Washington’s.

His forecast uses population growth over the past two years to project it to 2010. Both states have grown by about 3 percent in the past two years, ahead of the estimated national rate of about 2 percent.

Kimball Brace, of Election Data Services in Washington, D.C., said based on how congressional seats would shift if reapportionment were conducted now, neither state would gain a seat.

“All we can say for now is you’re close. It’s possible for 2010, but a lot of things have to continue to change,” said Brace, who typically advises Democrats.

New seats would increase voting power, provide more representation on congressional committees and give each state an added vote in the Electoral College, which makes the final designations in presidential elections.

Each state receives electoral votes equal to the number of their House and Senate members.

Oregon and Washington have voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1988. Most states projected to gain seats after the next census lean to the Republicans.

Bensen predicts Texas will gain four seats, Ohio and New York will lose two each and that California will not gain any for the first time since statehood in 1850.

The 2011 Legislature would decide where to draw new congressional district lines. If it can’t pass a plan signed by the governor, the job will fall to the federal courts.

A commission that studied legislative reform suggested a bipartisan panel do the job.

But Gary Wilhelms, co-chairman of the panel and a former Republican legislator, said he is skeptical legislators will surrender redistricting power.

“If either party…perceives it has an advantage, it is not going to want to give that up,” Wilhelms said.

Currently, Democrats hold four of Oregon’s five congressional seats. Republicans could gain one if a new district comes mostly from Portland’s outer suburbs and other parts of the Willamette Valley.

But that could make Reps. Darlene Hooley and David Wu’s districts more safely Democratic.

Oregon’s congressional districts will be redrawn in 2011 even if Oregon doesn’t get a new seat to reflect a shifting population.

In Washington, a bipartisan commission draws new district lines that must be ratified by the Legislature.

Bensen, the reapportionment expert, advised officials in both states to work with the Census Bureau to get the most complete count possible including such hard-to-count people as the homeless, those in institutions and migrant workers.

Bensen said that for reapportionment, everyone is counted, regardless of immigration status.