With key swing states closing their polls late this afternoon, it has been presumed that we’ll all but know the final outcome of the presidential election before Oregon finishes voting at 8 p.m. tonight.
With key swing states closing their polls late this afternoon, it has been presumed that we’ll all but know the final outcome of the presidential election before Oregon finishes voting at 8 p.m. tonight.
Many have opined that Oregon—nearly last to vote, reliably blue, with a single-digit electoral vote—really doesn’t matter in the presidential race. But three factors keep the West Coast state in play:
• First, a razor-thin margin in the battleground states. Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania—some of the closest races this year—will prompt automatic recounts if the final margin is less than 0.5 percent.
We may not know the winner tonight. While this may be a nightmare for election officials and pundits, it would keep media attention on Oregon and, more importantly, would allow last-minute Oregon voters to cast their ballots undeterred by decisive East Coast returns.
• Second, popular vote politics. Oregon is widely presumed to be in the bag for President Barack Obama. But a recent poll by The Oregonian (oregonlive.com/politics) shows the president with a slim six-point lead over Republican candidate Mitt Romney, down from his decisive 16-point lead in the 2008 election. While Obama may very well carry the state and its seven electoral votes, a close outcome could contribute to a historically close national popular vote (realclearpolitics.com).
A margin the size of Oregon’s college student population could, in theory, separate the two candidates nationally. Of course, this means nothing if the electoral vote ultimately tilts red or blue. But if, as some analysts are theorizing, the popular vote doesn’t match the electoral outcome, all eyes could turn to light-blue states like Oregon.
• Last, an engaged electorate. The Beaver State has historically had among the nation’s highest voter turnout (csmonitor.com). Could Oregon be number one in the nation this year?
As of Tuesday noon, just over 60 percent of registered voters have cast their ballot (twitter.com/oregonelections). The Oregon Student Association recently registered 50,000 students. Once the election mania has died down, it will be interesting to watch the state’s final, county-by-county numbers to see if we live up to our mantle.
